COMMITTEE REPORTS, ANNUAL SESSION 2014, THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS
Adopted texts - Annual session, The Hague (Netherlands), 22-24 November 2014
186 CDS 14 E bis - General Report
Political Transition in Afghanistan: Achievements and Challenges
General Rapporteur : Ulla SCHMIDT (Germany)
The first democratic changeover of power in Afghanistan’s history on 29 September 2014, marks the beginning of a new era for the country. After a tense and prolonged election process, the inauguration of Dr Ashraf Ghani as the new President of Afghanistan and the appointment of Dr Abdullah Abdullah as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) demonstrate the remarkable progress the country has achieved in the post-Taliban era. This paper provides an overview of some of the key governance challenges that Afghanistan faces today and of the measures that Afghan authorities and the international community have taken to address them. The Rapporteur argues that it is critically important for the international community to retain an adequate level of support for Afghanistan beyond 2014, with an even stronger focus on the rule of law and human rights protection, strengthening at the same time the Afghan institutions consistently, training the police forces and the judges and prosecutors in a well-coordinated manner.
187 CDSDG 14 E rev.1 fin. - Report of the Sub-Committee on Democratic Governance
Combatting Terrorism: Building Security and Defending Democratic Institutions
Rapporteur : Joëlle GARRIAUD-MAYLAM (France)
The rise of the so-called ‘Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham’ (ISIS), also known as Daesh, has once again propelled the threat of terrorism to the top of the global agenda. The key purpose of this report is to contribute to raising awareness of the fact that the nature of the terrorism threat is changing. Terrorist groups are adapting to the post 9/11 counter-terrorism strategies and reinventing themselves as a decentralised web of local and regional extremist organisations, spanning the Afghanistan-Pakistan border to Western Africa. They are also relying increasingly on home-grown radicalised individuals to carry out attacks on Western democracies.
The Rapporteur urges the Euro-Atlantic community to redouble efforts to support nations in northern Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia that bear the brunt of the fight against violent extremists. The rapporteur also argues in favour of supplementing law enforcement methods with long-term strategies designed to tackle the spread of extremist ideologies. However, the rapporteur underscores the importance of additional safeguards to ensure that anti-terrorist and de-radicalisation policies do not infringe fundamental rights and liberties.
188 CDS 14 E - Special Report
Ukraine’s European Choice: Geostrategic and Political Consequences
Special Rapporteur : Witold WASZCZYKOWSKI (Poland)
The purpose of this draft report it to provide an assessment of latest political and security developments in Ukraine and to discuss potential implications for the international order. The Draft report supports the European and democratic choice of the Ukrainian people and strongly condemns Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The Rapporteur calls on the Euro-Atlantic community to take meaningful steps to assist the new Ukrainian government in its efforts to restore Constitutional order, functioning economy and territorial integrity. He also urges NATO to continue bolstering defensibility of its Central and Eastern European Allies.
205 GSM 14 E rev. 2 fin - GSM Report
The Syrian refugee crisis and its impact on the region
GSM Rapporteur : Raynell ANDREYCHUK (Canada)
(This Report was adopted by the GSM at the Athens seminar on Friday 3 October 2014)
DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE (DSC)
191 DSC 14 E rev. 1 fin - General Report
Afghanistan 2014: A Critical Crossroads for NATO and the International Community
General Rapporteur : Julio MIRANDA CALHA (Portugal)
The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), the NATO-led operation, will draw to a close by the year’s end. The final withdrawal of ISAF closes the chapter on well over a decade of war fighting, counter-insurgency, and peace and reconstruction operations in the country by NATO and its partners. International stakeholders must sustain a shared commitment to the transition processes in order not to lose the relatively substantial progress made on the ground.
Although the ANSF have risen to unprecedented levels of operational capacity, insurgent activities remain a considerable challenge to state authority, the rule of law and the security of civilian populations. Security sector reform and state-building efforts in Afghanistan continue to face many of same challenges that they have faced for the past decade: capacity deficiencies, endemic corruption, challenges of geography, ethnic and confessional differences, as well as general infrastructural weaknesses.
The stakes are high for NATO allies and their partners during the 2014-2015 security transition in Afghanistan. Supporting Operation Resolute Support – the post-ISAF train, advise, and assist mission – through the end of 2016 will be critical to the final build-up of the ANSF. Maintaining a viable counter-terrorism capacity in the region as well as Central and South Asian stability remain strategic interests. Building a stable state in post-Taliban Afghanistan is part and parcel with these strategic regional and global security interests. As Western public opinion grows increasingly weary of continued engagement in Afghanistan, making the case for continuing the international role in Afghanistan is as much a challenge as ever.
This report recommends strengthening the international community’s partnerships with Afghan political elites and power brokers to continue to build the capacities of the ANSF, but to also establish clear and achievable benchmark to track the government’s progress in addressing the problems of corruption and to strengthen the rule of law. Such political co-operation, widened to include Pakistan, would also encourage progress towards a political settlement between the government in Kabul and insurgent groups. In addition, engaging provincial warlords through governance and security assistance would encourage them to integrate in state processes and institutions, therefore strengthening the Afghan political balance.
192 DSCFC 14 E rev 1 fin - Report of the Sub-Committee on Future Security and Defence Capabilities
Smart Defence: Platform Acquisition in the Face of New Technologies – A case study of drones
Rapporteur : Xavier PINTAT (France)
The precipitous rise in the use of remotely piloted aircraft (RPA), following 9/11 is nothing if not remarkable. The United States is the leading nation by far in drone capability, and is the only state to produce and fly MALE and HALE drones. But as many states look to roll out new, indigenous platforms and other aspirant states look on longingly, it is clear that US leadership will be contested by a new wave of drone proliferation.
Today, drones are used to maintain battlefield continuity by providing services from combat support ISR to strike capacity, outside of the theatre of combat; they have been instrumental in revolutionizing disaster relief co-ordination. Though they currently operate in a relatively uncontested airspace (20,000 feet is medium altitude), the spread of drone platforms will likely change this by changing ‘medium altitude’ from a permissible environment to a regional and global contested zone. Widespread use of any new global commons, from maritime to air to space has inevitably led to the need for a regulatory framework – code of conduct – to establish rules for their use; drones are unlikely to be exempt.
Drones are surrounded by a fair amount of misunderstanding about not only their utility, but also about the resources needed to field a fleet of remotely piloted aircraft. As this report will show, a principal misconception is the ‘unmanned’ nature of the aircraft; drones are in fact manpower and resource intensive, making them the ultimate manned aircraft. Further, as many states outside of the U.S. are discovering, the platform is difficult to develop and requires significant investment at the R&D level to build an instrument that can be incorporated in to a state’s range of capabilities.
This report focuses on European efforts to acquire MALE drone platforms. Expectations are high that European member states of NATO will be able to develop an indigenous MALE drone platform in the coming years – effective co-ordination between governments and industry will allow this to happen efficiently by finding necessary synergies and eliminating wasteful redundancies.
193 DSCTC 14 E rev.1 fin. - Report of the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security Co‑operation
Regional and Global Implications of the Syrian Civil War: What role for NATO?
Rapporteur: Andrzej SZEWINSKI (Poland)
Well into its fourth year, the Syrian civil war has reached a critical inflection point: it has become a regional and global threat. Despite a relative shift in the balance of power back in the favour of Damascus inside of Syria, the threat of the total collapse of the Syrian state remains, and now a principal armed group in northern Syria, Daesh, has launched a bid to take over the state of Iraq – the chaos and destruction of the Syrian war now extends far out into the region. The complicated regional and global proxy struggle for Syria has frustrated attempts at a political solution, drawn in tens of thousands of foreign fighters, radicalized the rebel front, and even reintroduced once eradicated pandemics into the state and region.
The threats emanating from the Syrian civil war to all NATO member states are clear. Conflict ‘spillover’ has brought Iraq to the verge of collapse and is now threatening all states in the region. Syrian state failure will pour millions more refugees into an already resource strained neighbourhood. Increasing radicalization combined with the inflow of tens of thousands of foreign fighters into rebel areas could make them wellsprings for global terrorism.
As the international peace process continues to be moribund, this report presents a balance of power analysis of regime and rebel forces, as well as of the regional and global effects of the civil war. The report concludes set of recommendations that NATO and its partner states should consider, such as increased direct aid to governments most directly affected by Syrian war refugees; greater ISR cooperation with neighbouring states; programs to help stabilize Lebanon and Iraq, and the promotion of a concerted broad-based comprehensive regional and international effort to revive the prospects of a political solution.
Given NATO’s clear post-Cold War history of engagement in what can be termed civilian protection missions – from Bosnia to Afghanistan to Libya – it is hard to argue that increased attention to the regional effects of the Syrian Civil War should not be considered.
ECONOMICS AND SECURITY COMMITTEE (ESC)
196 ESC 14 E rev. 1 fin - General Report
Negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
General Rapporteur : Diego LOPEZ GARRIDO (Spain - Espagne)
The Trans-Atlantic trading and investment relationship is the world’s most consequential and has long been a major engine of North American and European growth. The European Union and the United States aim to further this trading relationship by agreeing to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The TTIP talks seek to remove trade barriers across a wide range of economic sectors to reduce the cost of exchanging goods and services between the EU and the US. The ongoing talks have centred on tariffs, services, investment and an array of non-tariff barriers. One goal is to set high standards that that could also shape global rules on trade.
There are a range of sticking points in current talks on matters such as food and aviation safety, electric car standards and energy. Many interest groups oppose the TTIP because the agreement might enable corporations to challenge government policies and regulations based solely on the criteria linked to trade treaties rather than conforming to domestic preferences for regulation.
197 ESCTER 14 E bis - Report of the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Economic Relations
The Economic Dimensions of a changing US and European Approach to Asia
Rapporteur : Nathalie GOULET (France)
The so-called U.S. “pivot to Asia”, later rebranded as “rebalancing”, reflects an important adjustment of US foreign and economic policy. Asia will account for 50 percent of global GDP and more than 80 percent of global growth by 2050. Rapid development is precipitating a shift in the global balance of economic and military clout toward Asia, even if the United States today remains by far the world’s greatest military power. The European Union, Canada, and Russia have also had to come to terms with a highly dynamic Asia and adjust their policies toward that region accordingly.
The US is now in the process of redirecting its existing defence resources to Asia, although events in Crimea suggest that its presence in Europe remains essential. The United States has also assumed a lead role in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations involving 14 Pacific Rim countries. Meanwhile, Russia is enhancing its economic ties with China and frequently plays a China card in its dealings with Europe. Its Asian focus is very China focused but it also has concerns about China’s rise while China is unwilling to fully tie itself to Russia. Both the EU and Canada are forging ever-deeper trade relations with Asia although neither play a major role in the regional military balance. The attention towards Asia, especially from the US, has been viewed with scepticism and caution by China. Chinese leaders see the TPP negotiations as part of an effort to encircle and contain their country. Furthermore, the Chinese have taken a harsh view of U.S. support for Japan’s maritime sovereignty claims. China and the United States are thus simultaneously rivals and partners. This requires a nuanced form of engagement that ought not to be compared to old containment strategies.
198 ESCTD 14 E - Draft Report of the Sub-Committee on Transition and Development
Security and Economic Developments in the Sahel
Rapporteur: Michal SZCZERBA (Poland)
This report explores a range of security and economic challenges that the Sahel region currently confronts. It also outlines the international community’s collective stakes in the region’s stability and development. The Sahel lies at the doorstep of Europe, and instability there has global implications that the members of this Alliance cannot ignore.
Problems in Mali have been at the center of regional instability. That country has confronted multiple crises, which, in many cases, are evident throughout the Sahel region. This report is premised on the notion that economic development in the Sahel will not transpire without a modicum of security; yet regional security remains elusive. Mali’s challenge is not simply to restore order. It must also build functioning political institutions, reintegrate the north into the life of the state and cope with the fall out of the civil war that eventually led to a French-led intervention.
The erosion of state authority and legitimacy in Mali is evident in the growth of black markets and the entrenchment of international organized crime networks and terrorist groups with which past governments have sometimes colluded. The report also explores the effects of climate change on this very vulnerable region and outlines possible mitigation strategies.
The report concludes with a series of recommendations aiming that might help the region foster more sustained economic development and thereby help prevent yet another collapse of state authority.
POLITICAL COMMITTEE (PC)
201 PC 14 E rev. 1 fin. - General Report
The evolving Security Dynamics at NATO’s South‑Eastern border – Implications for transatlantic Co-operation
General Rapporteur : Ojars Eriks KALNINS (Latvia)
The evolving security landscape on NATO’s south-eastern border is a major point of concern for the Allies. Turkey, NATO’s southeasternmost Ally, is confronted with a host of security challenges at its borders. The division and inertia of the international community over the handling of the Syrian crisis have prevented any progress in ending the fighting while proxy policies of foreign actors plunge the country deeper into chaos. Spill-over effects into neighbouring countries already have negative impact on Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, among others. While the dramatic deterioration of the security situation in Iraq has prompted the creation of an international coalition to tackle the threat posed by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), the regional partners in the coalition have joined the fight against ISIS for different reasons and pursue different goals. Among the neighbours which have considerable leverage on the developments in Syria and Iraq is Iran, which continues to support the al-Assad regime. At the same time, Tehran’s policies, and its nuclear programme in particular, have raised significant concern among the Gulf states, western countries and the international community.
This report briefly surveys the complex array of challenges posed by the developments in Syria, Iraq and Iran for regional and Euro-Atlantic security and reflects on NATO’s policy towards this area. The report concludes by examining NATO’s responses to date and presents some recommendations for the Alliance towards the region.
202 PCNP 14 E rev.2 fin - Report of the Sub-Committee on NATO Partnerships
NATO Partnerships and the Open-Door Policy of the Alliance
Rapporteur : Rasa JUKNEVICIENE (Lithuania)
NATO’s Partnerships have been high on the agenda of the Wales Summit in September. The short report provides a general overview of NATO’s partnership as well as the “Open Door” policy, giving special attention to the NATO-Ukraine and NATO-Russia partnerships. Noting that the NATO-Russia partnership is in a profound crisis the report suggests that before NATO can re-engage with Russia Moscow must fulfil its international obligations and abide by international law. More generally, the rapporteur proposes that the Wales Summit made further progress on deepening NATO’s partnerships and that the changing security environment and the impact of the continuing financial crisis make closer co-operation of NATO with partner countries imperative. To this end, the Alliance should invigorate and expand current partnership frameworks particularly with like-minded partners as well as with partner countries of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, the Mediterranean Dialogue, and the Istanbul Co-operation Initiative but also with partners around the globe. In addition to contributing military capabilities to NATO-led operations, NATO partners can provide support in other areas such as financial and development assistance.
NATO Allies should continue their support to applicant countries which need to make further progress in their reforms to meet Alliance standards. It is now more important than ever to uphold the principle that every nation is free to choose its own fate. The Alliance must stick to its vision of a Europe whole, free and at peace, the rapporteur suggests.
203 PCTR 14 E rev. 1 fin - Report of the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Relations
NATO after 2014
Rapporteur : Jadwiga ZAKRZEWSKA (Poland)
The end of the combat mission in Afghanistan represents an inflection point for the Alliance as it moves from a “deployed NATO” to a “prepared NATO”. The commitment to a stable Afghanistan remains high on the agenda of the Alliance as do partnerships and the continued” Open Door” policy. However, the current crisis in Ukraine is a reminder that military conflict in Europe is still possible; it has refocused the Allies on NATO’s core business – the defence of its member states against an attack. In addition, new and emerging security challenges and global trends such as shifts in economic and military power, demographics, resource demand, will require NATO to revisit its strategy, roles, missions, and functions for the future. NATO needs to maintain its current capabilities and develop new ones to counter the current and future security threats effectively. However, a continuing transatlantic gap in defence investment poses a serious challenge to the cohesion of the Alliance as over-reliance on American assets is unsustainable in the long term, especially as the United States rebalances to Asia and grapples with fiscal challenges of its own.
This short report provides a snapshot of the issues that NATO needs to address as it prepares to shape “Future NATO”. It is an updated and expanded version of the report that has been presented at the Assembly’s Spring Session in Vilnius in May 2014 and is designed as a basis for discussion among parliamentarians of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly during the Autum Session in The Hague in November.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COMMITTEE (STC)
207 STC 14 E rev. 1 fin - General Report
The Global Spread of Ballistic Missile Defences
General Rapporteur : Stephen GILBERT (United Kingdom)
The threat from ballistic missiles is growing across the globe. More than 30 states possess ballistic missiles or have programmes to develop or procure them. The biggest worry is that some of these missiles could be adapted to carry warheads housing weapons of mass destruction. Consequently, an increasing number of countries already possess or are in the process of acquiring ballistic missile defence capabilities – even those countries that have traditionally been very skeptical of missile defences as a destabilising factor in international or regional security. The draft report examines the global spread of ballistic missile defence systems, both to take stock of arsenals worldwide and to discuss the possible strategic implications of this trend.
The report emphasizes that no clear consensus exists whether or in what circumstances the deployment of ballistic missile defence systems has a destabilizing or stabilizing effect on regional security and for international security writ large. Simply put, states seeking ballistic missile defence systems primarily do so because they believe such systems will, at best, stabilize their deterrence postures, and, at worst, limit the damage caused by an attack; whereas others believe highly capable and prolific ballistic missile systems undermine mutual deterrence, strategic arms reduction, and non-proliferation initiatives. The Rapporteur argues that states should increase transparency and strive for closer co-operation on ballistic missile defence to build confidence and reduce misperceptions. Ever-more capable ballistic missile defence systems will be part of the international security environment, and it is therefore imperative to continue to think through the consequences of their global build-up.
208 STCEES 14 E rev. 1 fin - Report of the Sub-Committee on Energy and Environmental Security
European Energy Security: the Southern Gas Corridor
Rapporteur : Osman Askin BAK (Turkey)
Energy security – and the security of natural gas supply in particular – is one of the most pressing issues for Europe and, indeed, for the Euro-Atlantic area as a whole, as the crisis in Ukraine clearly demonstrates. By 2035, Europe’s dependency on natural gas imports is expected to increase to 80 per cent (from 60 per cent in 2011). Therefore, the need to develop a secure and reliable supply of natural gas into Europe will be vital. The central problem of European energy security is its overdependence on a limited number of natural gas suppliers, and therefore Europe must diversify imports and secure access of natural gas from new markets.
The Rapporteur’s aim is to stimulate consultation, dialogue, and discussion between lawmakers from countries that need to work together to improve European energy security. The NATO PA is an important forum for this, as it brings together a unique set of parliamentarians from countries that are expected to become new exporters for Europe, for example Azerbaijan and the United States; crucial transit countries, such as Georgia and Turkey; and traditional suppliers, such as Algeria and Norway. The report examines the EU’s actions to improve supply security of natural gas, primarily through the Southern Gas Corridor project, and then analyses the new and potential sources of natural gas in Europe’s neighbourhood, with a specific focus on the Caspian Sea region, the Eastern Mediterranean basin, and Iraq.
209 STC 14 E bis - Special Report
Cyber Space and Euro-Atlantic Security
Special Rapporteur : Philippe VITEL (France)
Over the last quarter-century, cyber space has become a fundamental pillar of modern life. In parallel to the many positive effects generated by cyber space for politics, economics, and societies, threats to and in cyber space as well as those which are enabled by it are proliferating. While most cyber threats can and should be handled by law enforcement agencies, the purpose of this draft report is to examine those threats that can directly undermine national security and thus require national and international defence efforts. In assessing the threat environment, the Rapporteur finds that cyber attacks targeting military networks and national critical infrastructure pose the greatest threat to national security and are becoming more and more vulnerable due to their increasing reliance on networked capabilities. The draft report explores a number of ways in which states can reduce their vulnerability to and counter these cyber threats.
Given the potential impact and global proliferation of cyber threats, Euro-Atlantic states are looking to establish and bolster cyber security policy and practices at the national and multinational levels. With the aim of informing a transatlantic debate on the ways in which co‑ordinated and collective cyber security can enhance overall Euro-Atlantic security, the draft report outlines the current approaches to cyber security in the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Estonia as well as NATO, and the EU. Although cyber security has received sustained, high-level attention in recent years, countermeasures against cyber threats are still in developmental stages. The Rapporteur concludes that while cyber security is, first of all, a national responsibility, international co‑operation, especially within NATO and the EU, adds substantial unexplored and untapped value. Ultimately, the cyber threat is here to stay and good cyber defences need to be incorporated into our national and international defence policies.